Challenges in monsoon prediction

Published On:

Because the monsoon is a complicated interhemispheric and interoceanic phenomenon, forecasting it is highly challenging.

Compared to temperate weather, tropical weather is much more unpredictable and poorly understood.

Due to the Indian subcontinent's complex topography, which includes the world's tallest mountains, vast deserts, and the longest and deepest valleys encircled by the ocean on three sides, the monsoon is incredibly unpredictable both in terms of location and timing.

Lack of data: The IMD uses 679 automatic weather stations, 550 surface observatories, 43 radiosondes, or weather balloons, 24 radars, and three satellites to gather weather data, including temperature, humidity, wind, and precipitation. Nevertheless, considering the vastness of India, this data is insufficient. To make the forecasts accurate, though, more information is needed. Major data gaps also exist, such as those pertaining to dust, aerosols, soil moisture, and maritime conditions.

Absence of infrastructure: The quality of the automated weather stations is poor. They require routine cleaning and calibration, which is uncommon. That has an impact on the data's quality. Dynamic models necessitate a large number of computations, which calls for supercomputers.

Adoption of Western models that are not adjusted to meet Indian requirements.

Impact of pollution: Elevated atmospheric aerosol concentrations have the tendency to modify the properties and forms of clouds that carry rain, producing intense downpours but depressing monsoon rainfall.