IMF Growth Outlook

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The IMF's recent World Economic Outlook presents a mixed medium-term forecast, with steady global growth but concerns for emerging markets.

The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook offers both positive and concerning assessments. On the positive side, fears of a global recession have been averted, inflation is nearing control, and global growth remains stable, with the U.S. set for strong performance this year. However, developing regions like West Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Central Asia face downgrades due to conflict and unrest. Emerging Asia, boosted by investments in China and India, shows brighter prospects. The IMF projects global growth of 3.2% in 2024 but warns of food price pressures and high service inflation in some regions. For India, the IMF retains a growth estimate of 7% for 2024-25, driven by pent-up demand post-pandemic, though urban demand remains uneven. India's growth may increasingly depend on domestic factors as exports and foreign investments face challenges. The IMF forecasts slower global growth of 3.1% in five years, with protectionist policies further straining recovery. The Indian government has initiated reforms, but the IMF suggests that policymakers must pursue deeper changes to sustain growth, such as reducing trade barriers and encouraging competition and integration.