How global warming affects forecasts
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Context
The year 2023-2024 will see unprecedented heat and extreme weather events, giving the world a clear picture of the far-reaching effects of global warming. Events such as heatwaves, cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires are becoming more frequent and intense, reflecting the global climate crisis.
Why in the news?
Scientists and meteorologists are concerned about how quickly the world has crossed the critical warming threshold, with global temperatures rising far beyond expectations.
A combination of factors, including El Niño and volcanic eruptions, have contributed to the rapid rise in temperatures, raising questions about the reliability of climate predictions.
Background
As the Earth continues to warm, the scientific community is working to model and predict the effects of climate change.
The 1.5º C limit, an important benchmark established in global climate agreements, is used to measure the potential for environmental disruptions such as sea level rise and extreme weather patterns.
However, the complexity of natural climate systems and their interaction with global warming has made accurate predictions challenging.
Surpassing the 1.5°C limit
Recent projections suggest that global average temperatures have already risen by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This milestone, while worrying, comes with uncertainties about how long these increased temperatures will persist and how quickly predicted environmental impacts will materialize.
Unpredictability of weather and climate
The 2023-2024 extreme weather events highlight the limitations of current climate models.
Despite the improvements, meteorologists were stunned by the scale of the warming, and the destruction caused by these events shows that the ability to predict and manage climate disasters remains inadequate.
Surprising impact of El Niño
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon, was forecast to end as early as 2023.
However, the level of warming associated with it was far greater than anticipated. Factors such as the 2022 eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai and rising CO2 levels from forest fires likely added to the heat, leading to an unexpected rise in global temperatures.
Irregular monsoon and cyclone season
The 2023 monsoon season was irregular, with some regions experiencing severe drought and other regions experiencing floods and landslides. Although the season did not qualify as an El Niño drought it defied common expectations, surprising scientists.
Additionally, the cyclone season in the northern Indian Ocean was weaker than forecast, adding to the unpredictability of the year’s weather patterns.
The challenge of accurate climate forecasting
The difficulty of accurately predicting weather patterns such as hurricanes, El Niño, La Niña, and monsoons has become even more pronounced in a warming world.
Many models used by meteorologists fail to anticipate the intensity of warming and its impacts, raising concerns about the reliability of future predictions.
Improving models for better forecasting
Climate models are constantly evolving despite their limitations. Scientists are incorporating advanced techniques such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve their ability to forecast weather and climate changes.
However, challenges remain in predicting long-term climate trends and understanding variability in natural climate systems.
Hope for better early warnings
While forecasting is difficult, better early warning systems are expected in the near future. Advances in technology and observation networks will enable more accurate, localized forecasts, which can help reduce the impacts of extreme weather events.
Uncertainties of long-term climate projections
Climate projections beyond the next decade are uncertain because modeling how emissions, population growth, and mitigation policies will interact is complex.
The inability to accurately capture the response of natural climate systems to global warming further complicates these projections, making it difficult to predict the future beyond a few decades.
Conclusion
The record warming of 2023-2024 has highlighted shortcomings in our ability to predict and manage climate change. While scientists have made significant progress, the extreme weather events of recent years show that there is still much work to be done to improve climate models and early warning systems.
The way forward
To address the challenges posed by climate change, it is important to focus on improving climate models and investing in advanced technologies.
Short-term projections should be preferred, as they are more reliable, and efforts to improve early warning systems should continue. Global cooperation and continued research are essential to better prepare for the future impacts of a warming world.
India gears up to counter Beijing's 'Made in China 2025' manufacturing plan
Context
India is preparing to counter China's 'Made in China 2025' strategy, which aims to make China the global leader in high-tech manufacturing by 2049.
India is introducing measures such as anti-dumping duties, anti-subsidy duties and quality control orders to address the potential impact of this plan. There are also talks about collaborating with Western countries to collectively tackle this challenge.
Why in the news?
China remains India's largest trading partner and its dominance in the supply of high-tech and subsidized goods is growing. As China moves into the advanced stages of its industrial strategy, Indian officials are concerned about the impact it will have on domestic manufacturing.
Background
The 'Made in China 2025' initiative, launched in 2015, is a long-term plan by China to dominate global manufacturing, particularly in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles and renewable energy.
By offering subsidies and tax exemptions, China seeks to boost its self-sufficiency and export dominance.
Key features of 'Made in China 2025'
The initiative is structured in 3 phases:
- By 2025, achieve 70% self-sufficiency in high-tech industries.
- By 2035, compete with global manufacturing rivals.
- By 2049, transform into a global manufacturing superpower.
Chinese industries, particularly in electric vehicles, chips and renewable energy, benefit from government subsidies and incentives.
India's response to cheap Chinese imports
India is employing a dual strategy to counter subsidized imports from China.
This includes imposing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese goods and issuing quality control orders to prevent the influx of low-cost imports. These measures are aimed at protecting India's domestic manufacturing sector from the adverse effects of subsidized Chinese products.
China dominates India's imports
In 2023-24, China was India's largest supplier, with imports worth $101 billion, while Indian exports to China were only $16.65 billion. China's share in India's import market has been steadily rising, especially in high-tech goods and renewable energy equipment.
Impact on solar equipment imports
China has a significant impact on India's solar power sector, supplying the bulk of photovoltaic (PV) equipment.
In FY24, China provided 56% of India's cumulative solar PV cell imports and 66% of solar PV modules. The total value of solar imports from China rose to $6.21 billion.
Potential Collaboration with Western Countries
India is exploring the possibility of working together with Western countries to prevent the global dominance of Chinese high-tech products.
This collaboration can help India align its strategies with like-minded countries facing similar challenges from China’s growing influence in international markets.
Future Challenges for Indian Industry
As China moves into the next phases of its industrial strategy, competition for India will increase.
The expansion of Chinese high-tech products could pose major challenges for Indian industries, especially in sectors such as semiconductor fabrication and renewable energy. India must remain vigilant to protect its own manufacturing base.
Conclusion
India faces significant challenges from China’s fast-moving industrial strategy.
Beijing’s long-term goal of dominating high-tech manufacturing presents a threat to Indian industries, especially in sectors where China enjoys substantial cost advantages due to government subsidies.
Way Forward
India will need to continue to apply trade measures such as anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties to protect its domestic industry.
Strengthening cooperation with Western countries, enhancing domestic production capabilities in high-tech areas and reducing dependence on Chinese imports will be critical to ensure India’s industrial competitiveness.
China tests intercontinental ballistic missile in Pacific Ocean
Context
China on Wednesday tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a significant military move after decades. The missile was fired into the Pacific Ocean, drawing global attention and raising concerns among neighboring countries.
Why in the news?
The missile test is notable as it is China's first ICBM launch into the Pacific in decades. The launch comes amid China's extensive military expansion and nuclear modernisation, which has led to increased regional tensions and international scrutiny.
Background
China has been steadily expanding its nuclear capabilities in recent years. According to reports, China will have over 500 nuclear weapons by May 2023, and is expected to have over 1,000 by 2030.
Additionally, China has ramped up its defense spending, raising concerns among other global powers, particularly the U.S.
Regional protests and concerns
Several countries in the region, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, expressed serious concerns following the missile launch. Japan particularly expressed dissatisfaction over the lack of advance notice, while Australia sought an explanation. New Zealand termed the incident as an "unwanted and worrying development".
China's growing nuclear capabilities
China's nuclear stockpile is growing rapidly, making the country the third-largest nuclear power worldwide after Russia and the US. Beijing's defence budget, the second-largest in the world, has seen a 7.2% increase this year, reflecting its military ambitions.
China's response to the launch
China's Defence Ministry described the test as a "routine" part of its annual training exercise and said it followed international law and was not intended to target any specific country.
However, experts consider the test as part of China's broader nuclear modernisation strategy.
International tensions and nuclear arms control
The missile launch comes at a time when tensions are rising between China and the US. In 2021, the two countries held rare talks on nuclear arms control, but these discussions were suspended after the US sold weapons to Taiwan in July 2023.
The US continues to express concerns over China's hypersonic missile development and rapid nuclear advancement.
Anti-corruption efforts within China's Rocket Force
China's Rocket Force, which is responsible for the country's nuclear arsenal, has been the focus of a massive anti-corruption campaign.
In July, former Rocket Force Chief of Staff Sun Jinming was placed under investigation for corruption. The campaign reflects the Chinese government's ongoing efforts to address internal challenges within its military.
Conclusion
China's recent missile test underscores its growing military power and its commitment to nuclear modernization. The development has raised concerns regionally and globally, especially amid tensions between China and the US.
While China has described the test as a routine test, its neighbors and international observers see it as a potentially destabilizing factor.
The Way Forward
China’s growing military capabilities call for increased dialogue between global powers, particularly the United States and China, to prevent escalation of tensions and foster arms control agreements.
Regional powers can also seek to strengthen their own security postures while encouraging transparency and communication with China to prevent miscalculations.
